“PRRI developed two likely voter models to measure potential support for each candidate under two turnout scenarios. If voter turnout looks similar to 2016 (55% turnout), the survey finds Biden besting Trump by 14 percentage points (54% to 40%). If voter turnout is higher (70% turnout), as multiple indicators suggest is likely, Biden leads Trump by 18 percentage points (56% to 38%). The underlying dynamics of Trump’s support has shifted significantly since 2016. About seven in ten Trump supporters (71%) say their vote is more for Trump than against Biden, while 28% say their vote is more against Biden than for Trump” – PRRI.
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