“Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a clear advantage in the national polls” writes Harry Enten.
“Perhaps not wanting to acknowledge Biden’s edge, some Republicans, including in President Donald Trump’s own circle, claim that the polls are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans. Often, they point to the 2016 exit polls.”
“An in-depth look at the current high-quality national telephone polls reveals it’s quite unlikely the polls are inaccurate because of an undersampling of Republicans. The current polls have the same relative partisan makeup as earlier this year when the race was tighter and as the accurate final national 2016 polls.”
“Biden is leading not because the polls are undersampling Republicans, but because he simply has more support than Trump does nationally.”