Ron Brownstein: “Trump’s ability to hold onto about three-fifths of non-college-educated white voters nonetheless testifies to the power of the cultural and racial attitudes that bond them to him. Even non-college-educated white women—though clearly less supportive now than in 2016—still give Trump a clear majority of their votes in all of the recent national surveys for which that data was available. (Biden leads among those women in Wisconsin, the Marquette poll found.) In the South, Trump continues to amass towering margins among white voters without a college degree: He’s at 70 percent or more among them in recent polls in North Carolina and Georgia, and nearly that high in Texas. Polls likewise show that Trump is maintaining support from about three-fourths (NBC/WSJ) to four-fifths (Pew) of white evangelical Christians. With rural voters, the Pew, NBC/WSJ, and ABC/Post polls all put him between 55 percent and 60 percent support. Those numbers in rural communities would also constitute slight declines from 2016, and that threatens Trump, given how narrowly he won last time.”

“But all of these results signal how many white Americans remain responsive to Trump’s underlying argument that a victory for the diverse Democratic coalition on display this week would irreversibly transform the nation into something they consider alien and unacceptable. It is that audience Trump explicitly targets when he declares, as he did in his Yuma speech, that if Biden wins, ‘our country will not be the country that we know.’ (Trump also nodded to such voters last night when he praised the victory in a Republican House primary of extremist anti-Muslim candidate Laura Loomer, one week after he congratulated a follower of the QAnon conspiracy theory who won a GOP primary in Georgia.)”