A report issued by JP Morgan Chase on Wednesday estimates that the costs of convicted felon President Trump’s trade war on midsize firms “across the US are estimated as $82.3 billion, or $2,080 per middle market employee, on average. This represents about 3.1 percent of the average annual payroll of a US midsize firm. However, this is an estimate of the direct costs of tariffs averaged out over all midsize firms, including those that do not import – in practice, some firms are likely to incur higher direct tariff costs than this, while others will bear no direct costs at all. Note that our estimates show the direct costs that would apply if firms continued to import at 2022 levels and pay the associated tariffs. Importers may be able to mitigate the upfront costs in different ways, such as by raising sales prices or switching to suppliers subject to lower or no tariffs.”
“However, doing so might still be costly, as alternative suppliers may charge higher prices. For certain specialized inputs, a viable alternative supplier may not exist,” the report continued.