Harry Enten: “President-elect Joe Biden is going to be the next president of the United States. That hasn’t stopped President Donald Trump and his campaign from claiming without any proof that there was wide scale fraud in the 2020 election. The truth, as confirmed by an audit of Georgia’s votes, is that Biden won this election. It’s highly unlikely that any recounts will change that. And we’re long past the point that candidates in Trump’s position have conceded in previous races. Last week, Georgia embarked on an audit (which was really more of a hybrid of an audit and hand recount) involving election workers checking every ballot by hand to make sure the vote counting equipment was accurate. This process is more involved than a mere machine recount.”

“Yet, even with a more involved process, Georgia’s count in the presidential race before the audit was largely confirmed. Biden was up by 14,156 votes before the audit, according to the Secretary of State’s office. Both the audit count and final certified count on Friday showed Biden ahead by more than 12,000 votes, per the Secretary of State’s office. That’s a shift from before the audit of less than 2,000 votes or less than 0.04 points in Biden’s margin, which stands at about 0.25 points in both the audit and final certified counts. Such movement is well within the range of what would be expected under a normal recount, let alone a more arduous count that this was. Based on over 30 statewide recounts since 2000 accumulated by FairVote, anything within 0.04 points is within one standard deviation of the changes between the initial count and recount. Even a shift of 0.1 points would be within the historical range of how much recounts have moved things in the past.”