“The toughest trial Kevin McCarthy faces on his way to becoming House speaker isn’t reclaiming the majority. It’s what comes afterward. McCarthy and his allies are elated by the strong GOP showing in this month’s elections, ambitiously projecting a midterm gain next year to rival the 63-seat wave that swamped House Democrats in 2010. But if Democrats can tamp down the number of Republican victories next fall, then some of McCarthy’s own members say the Californian could hit potholes on his road to the gavel. While the GOP is widely favored to take back the House, McCarthy needs a majority of votes on the floor in early 2023 in order to ascend to speaker.”

“The minority leader’s math problem is simple: The fewer seats Republicans pick up in the midterms, the more powerful his skeptics will become. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus, said the number of seats the GOP picks up next year will matter ‘big time’ for McCarthy’s speakership dream: ‘Five or eight [pick-ups] is a whole different ball game than 20 to 30’. McCarthy has worked diligently to overcome the conservative opposition that stymied his 2015 bid for speaker. He’s kept Trump close in a House GOP that’s swinging to the right while laboring to prevent a handful of firebrand freshmen from dominating the narrative of this Congress. The conference unanimously elected him minority leader a year ago next week, and he may get an added boost of goodwill if he brings Republicans back to the majority after a bumpy stretch. Even so, McCarthy’s victory in 2023 is not guaranteed” – Politico.